«We’ve been experiencing a precipitation deficit for at least seven years, meaning precipitation is either below normal or within normal limits,» Kretova noted. She added that one of the noticeable consequences of the water shortage is the situation with Toktogul reservoir, which is experiencing difficulties filling its required volume.

The changes are uneven across the country. In areas with traditionally high precipitation, the intensity of precipitation may increase. In arid climates, moisture becomes even less. Thus, climatic contrasts intensify.

The climatologist focused particularly on the Suusamyr Valley. According to her, precipitation there significantly decreases during the growing season—the time when vegetation needs moisture most.

The dry period is also becoming more noticeable in Bishkek. According to Kretova, it occurs approximately from June 1 to September 30. During this time, evaporation exceeds precipitation. In unirrigated areas, grass begins to burn out in early summer and reappears only after temperatures drop in the fall.

The expert noted that this period is becoming longer and more intense. As a result, the soil dries out faster, pastures degrade, water demand increases, and agriculture becomes even more dependent on irrigation.

Experts cite drought and heat waves as the main climate risk for farmers in Kyrgyzstan. Rainfed lands and pastures are particularly vulnerable, as compensating for the lack of precipitation with additional irrigation is either impossible or extremely difficult.

Humans have virtually no direct influence on precipitation. According to experts, the main task is to retain available moisture: implement water-saving technologies, improve soil health, and preserve and restore forests. The healthier the soil, the more water it can retain.

Climatologists warn that even a possible increase in precipitation in the future will not solve the problem on its own. Rising temperatures will increase evaporation, and rainfall will become uneven—prolonged droughts could alternate with periods of intense rainfall.