On June 2, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that conditions for the formation of El Niño had begun developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and urged countries to prepare for possible changes in weather patterns worldwide.

On June 11, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the start of the El Niño phenomenon and issued a warning for the United States.

This month, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre published a forecast analysis of El Niño for 2026–2027. According to the report, Australia, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, and India may face severe drought conditions.

At the same time, forecasts indicate that Central Asia could experience significantly above-normal precipitation levels in 2026–2027.

In the event of a Super El Niño, when sea surface temperatures rise by more than 2.5—3°C, precipitation levels are expected to increase even more compared with a typical El Niño event.

Until August, precipitation levels in Central Asia are expected to remain close to the climatic average. However, by November, as El Niño strengthens, forecasts are shifting toward above-normal rainfall.

In addition, Central Asia is expected to face a high probability of prolonged heat waves throughout the summer.

According to climatologist Olga Strizhantseva, high temperatures lead to more intense evaporation.

«Clouds that form move toward land, where precipitation occurs. In the coming weeks, cyclonic circulation is approaching Kyrgyzstan, bringing precipitation, cloudiness, and windy weather. At the moment, we are observing a slight increase in rainfall, but it is difficult to predict what will happen next. However, heavy rainfalls may increase the likelihood of hazardous situations such as mudflows and floods. In addition, intense precipitation may contribute to an increase in the volume of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. A slight rise in the frequency of such events may be possible in the coming years,»

she said.

Under normal conditions, the persistent winds blowing from the tropics toward the equator move from east to west, pushing warm surface waters toward Asia and accumulating them in the western Pacific Ocean.

However, in some years these winds weaken. Warm surface waters move eastward, reducing the upwelling of cold waters off the coast of South America. Climate scientists refer to this phenomenon as El Niño.

El Niño occurs when the monthly sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific rises by at least 0.5°C above the average level for several consecutive months.

The phenomenon affects weather patterns around the world, with its consequences varying significantly by region. Some areas face an increased risk of drought, while others experience a higher likelihood of floods.