The WMO estimates there is an 80% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August and a near or above 90% chance that they will persist until at least November. The organization says the event could contribute to a rise in extreme weather around the world, including heatwaves, droughts, and intense rainfall.

According to the WMO, temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been steadily increasing and are approaching the thresholds typically associated with El Niño. Scientists have also detected a large reservoir of unusually warm water below the ocean’s surface, with temperatures more than six degrees Celsius above normal in some areas, providing additional energy for the phenomenon to intensify.

For Central Asia, El Niño is often associated with higher-than-average precipitation. While the region is better known for its arid and semi-arid climate, past El Niño events have brought increased rainfall to parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said countries should prepare for the possibility of stronger droughts and heavy rains, as well as elevated risks of heatwaves on land and in the oceans.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Saulo said.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing conditions as an urgent climate warning, saying El Niño would “pour fuel on the fire” of global warming and could accelerate the impacts of extreme weather worldwide.

Seasonal forecasts released by the WMO also indicate that temperatures from June through August are likely to remain above normal across most regions of the world. Scientists note that while there is no evidence that climate change is making El Niño more frequent, a warmer atmosphere and warmer oceans can amplify its effects.

The previous major El Niño episode, in 2023-2024, ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024. The WMO says improved seasonal forecasting gives governments time to prepare for potential disruptions to agriculture, water resources, and disaster response systems before severe weather develops.